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Everything posted by flash4cash

  1. Yes i saw that, do not know much about it. Lets hope it is not a Franz Ferdinand moment. Longterm manuka will keep trucking. It may well get caught in a cycle as demand matures, however it will still be no 1. I am not as concerned about global events as you are. Im no good at prediction that sort of thing, to complicated for me. I am bullish on Philbee Staples however so if you want to sell and hunker down in a nuclear shelter you got my number ?
  2. Fair point. I would have thought most of the big players are all mainly Manuka? Would they not just buy each other out?
  3. Day would go alot better with beer on tap..increased sales
  4. Yes there are a few that are causing all the problems. I expect they will increase the concentration with time. I could see the top 10 with half the hives soon. In regards to this levy it should be 1 vote per registration number. It is the only way to stop a takeover by the big boys. In the goat game each shareholder gets 1 vote regardless of shareholding size. It makes for a fairer outcome and a wider range of concerns addressed.
  5. You will no expect they will want to address the overcrowding concerns, once they gain control of this new levy.
  6. We are basically number 1 in terms if value which is why I am bullish on NZ honey sector as a whole longterm. We have the King of honey in Manuka. There is no other country in the world i would rather be a bee keeper in.
  7. Interesting I thought they would collect sales at he till. I know they track each sale in each store per week. It may not come under export data as i understand they break it down to 2/3 cans per shipment and send it in. This way there get around the system and they do not have to pay import duties.
  8. One potential area where there maybe sales that are not recorded is the grey trade that people buy from supermarkets and send oversea. It is possible to buy large qualities if product direct from Countdown and ship it. I know this is happening to goat infant formula as one of my friends who use to work in head office told me. One customer was moving about $6 million a year that way. DGC did not know about this when i told them.
  9. I do not like that graph. Every time i see that exponential growth on a chart it is followed by a steep decline
  10. They could both be right. That packer could be doing really well for themselves. If these figures are correct 8,000 ton export and 5,000 ton domestic so 13,000 vs 27,000 production then wow that is a massive overproduction. How has it got this big?
  11. @Emissary do you have a breakdown of honey types? Before we can find solutions we need to better understand what we have to work with.
  12. We need to sell a solution to a consumer need. Maybe that solution could be pure honey. Syntheic and antibiotic free from one of the most clean and beautiful countries on earth. Appeal to consumers who will pay the privilege of this. We need too tell our story.
  13. @jamesc i am confident you will find a solution to your mountain of honey. For someone whom was smart enough to pioneer use sniffer dogs to destroy to your afb issue, to the point of not having to burn a single hive this season you will find a way. Just use that same brilliance to sell your honey. You can do it ?
  14. Im not ready to talk about sunshine yet..to afraid we will scare it away. ? Love seeing the bees busy, having something else to do than sting me. They can be moody in bad weather. Still checking for swarming. They are still trying. Noticing more hives with varroa in drone brood and some PMS. So am going to treat the lot. Philbees Stapes trail are only early days however I am going to pump them all with Philbee Staples EP Thins I think. I like them easy to insert. It will be a good test for them in stong hives in full swing.
  15. @M4tt thouses are some good lookin animals. Beauiful condition. They look tasty. Nice yards too
  16. Govterment goes for the bail out. How embarrassing would it be to have your biggest company fail. No leader of the country want that on their record. It can be done successfully look at Obama and the US auto industry.
  17. I am surprised about cow sales i would have thought with m bovis prices would go up. Since joinig DGC 12 years ago quota has grown from 1260 to 5500 tons. It is less risk now than then as we have more markets. Back 12 years ago Taiwan made up 50% of total sales. DGC is back to being debt free so is in a very strong finincal postion going forward. The current driers has the capacity to take us to 9800. We do need another canning plant though. They have brought the land for the expansion, 12 ha out Te rapa. Takes 7 years from start to go on a new drier so they start the process now.
  18. The reduction in payout comes from wait for it....an oversupply of milk. Sooo they produce more but get less for it.. What they should do is cut back on expensive concentrates feed and produce less and make more profit. Interesting the rain is what is depressing prices, as this will result more milk. Customers know this so stop trying to chase limited supply as it no long a problem. What would fix that is if fonterra had quotas. I think their assumption that prices will lift in the 2nd half is wrong. Traditionally they are weaker due to demand falling from China as the fill their tariff free quota. This artificially pump prices before xmas as chinesse companies rush to secure purchases.
  19. They said it is an abnormally in their business..yes a high profit margin valued added branded goldmine. Making the other parts look poor. Best get rid of it so underpreforming parts look better.
  20. That is true a couple of billion lost in 2 poor Chinese investments.
  21. @M4tt Alittle off topic. Sorry to hear about the reduction forecast in payout. I can not beleive fonterra is considering sell it icecream business to reduce debt. That makes no sense, tiptop is a goldmine since it basically sells branded air. Just goes to show how dumb the strategy in fonterra really is. I know they have to much debt, however sell what got you into debt not the crown jewels. Just because they can get a good price for it. This just futher weakens fonerra longterm.
  22. So let me tease out the market lead controled supply concept abit futher. On the face of it it sounds restrictive. It more librating and profitable than it sounds both in boom years and poor years. Again from DGC. So we have been under supply restrictions for the past 3 years. That means that we can only produce 147,471 kg of milk solids in a year. Our farm has been going well so we have been producing about 185,000 per year. What did we do with all the extra milk? We leased supplier quota from farmers that could not meet their quota for whatever reason. It is a win:win they get money to offset there lack of production we get to supply milk and cover our costs and make a little bit. Last season we did this for 8 farms. Bankers love it to as it reduces the risk of underperformance in a farm. So how could this work for bees. I recall a season or 2 ago @john berry and @frazzledfozzle were having tough season with next too no surplus honey. @jamesc made the generous offer to put them on a a truck and ship them south to a flow. However if quota was allocated they could have instead leased their quota to james who was having an unusually bumper season that would have resulted in him getting say 20 tons more than usual. Fazz and john get valuable cash flow and james would have a willing buyer for his surplus honey. Quota would be a bigger blessing for bees than most other industries as it rare to have no production in any given year. A beekeeper would own the quota it would increase in value with time and could be brought and sold. When supply is restricted at easier to sell the product profitably, resulting in a higher payout to producers. A market lead approach does not mean no volume growth. Look at zespri they plan to double volume in the next 10 years. DGC hopes to do that in 5. The key is both develop the market profitably 1st before they take the produce. This can be best summed up the the founding chairman of DGC, the late Russ Monery "New Zealands think the world is failing over themselves to buy our product, this is not the case. Markets are hard won, we must be mindful not to produce milk power that they simply do not want. You do not want to be force to sell it cheap because customers talk. If one gets it cheap they all want it cheap and we will all be broke." The goat industry started and failed twice from oversupply of milk. It took a visionary and discipline to finally control themselves. A market lead approach is the cornerstone to success.
  23. Say $18 kg supermarket price - gst ($2.38) - supermarket markup New world (45% or $4.86) countdown (35%) = $10.79 So at $4kg wholesale honey. Brand owners revenue is $6.79 minus there non honey cost.
  24. Yes. They not the only one that does controled supply and quotas. So does Zespri. Both models are what the honey industry needs to think about if they want to make real change. Over supply is crippling to any industry
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