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Dennis Crowley

Boundary Riding Beekeeping

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I think  "too big to fail  "only applies to banks .

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And even that does not always apply. Be glad you did not buy shares in Comvita when it was all looking so rosy.

.

Some of them corporates don't look especially smart and knowledgeable to me.

 

These are the experts going to take us over? Whodda thunk!

 

14075686_comvitachart.thumb.JPG.335f0e2f65ff6153da95499875f19ce3.JPG2084134480_comvita1.thumb.JPG.1fbc906484c5d6e94842238702a91e60.JPG1723303477_comvita2.thumb.JPG.2c71eeca526cbf86fb4d2486fb7e339b.JPG

.

Not sure they are keeping track of 30,000 beehives any more.

 

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6 hours ago, john berry said:

and perhaps the new beekeepers could be sub-primes.

Lol

define "new Beekeeper"

Ive found that while in the company of older folk they will always refer to me as a young fella 

I can see a time when as a 70YO the 90YOs will still be calling me the young fella 

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Posted (edited)

Talking about unsustainable and the near demise of Comvita, it was Comvita that was one of the first to pay high site rents, and has been a driver in high site rents, as a means to drive out other smaller beekeepers and they have been successful at that.

 

Other corporates adopted a similar strategy and some are now in a similar predicament.

 

However, since they have been steadily losing money, and share price is 25% of what it once was, they are clearly spending more money than they can afford. IE, for them, high site rents have not been sustainable, their businesses are self destructing.

Edited by Alastair
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Following along from the dairy collapse and then the honey collapse , the international price of pine logs has just nosedived by over 30% , and is expected to continue  further as the International  buyers test just how far they can go .

This is going to have severe ramifications for the small time logger , the truckers and really everyone involved in forestry, not to mention the forest owners .

Primary production is a  really tough place to be 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Alastair said:

And even that does not always apply. Be glad you did not buy shares in Comvita when it was all looking so rosy.

.

Some of them corporates don't look especially smart and knowledgeable to me.

 

These are the experts going to take us over? Whodda thunk!

 

14075686_comvitachart.thumb.JPG.335f0e2f65ff6153da95499875f19ce3.JPG

 

a mate with no idea about beekeeping but a fairly good eye for a market deal wanted to talk about comvita shares with me recently, the questions he asked me and my answers left him uncertain on whether to gamble and he was going to do a lot more digging - funny, cos my view on my answers was a definite no on the gamble. Then again, i'm not a speculative investor

31 minutes ago, M4tt said:

Following along from the dairy collapse and then the honey collapse , the international price of pine logs has just nosedived by over 30% , and is expected to continue  further as the International  buyers test just how far they can go .

This is going to have severe ramifications for the small time logger , the truckers and really everyone involved in forestry, not to mention the forest owners .

Primary production is a  really tough place to be 

not really so much related to international buyers testing, more to do with oversupply due to some beetle in russia or something along with the trains from germany

Edited by tommy dave

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1 hour ago, Alastair said:

Talking about unsustainable and the near demise of Comvita, it was Comvita that was one of the first to pay high site rents, and has been a driver in high site rents, as a means to drive out other smaller beekeepers and they have been successful at that. 

Do you think any of the landowners factored the inflated values for hive sites into the economic viability of their farms .

Or would it always have just been bonus money .

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56 minutes ago, kaihoka said:

Do you think any of the landowners factored the inflated values for hive sites into the economic viability of their farms .

Or would it always have just been bonus money .

 

Based on what can be seen in real estate advertisements, at least in some cases it is factored in. Blocks are sometimes advertised as having manuka and with bees in place paying X $$'s per annum. For those who plant manuka they also presumably did some sums before investing.

 

1 hour ago, tommy dave said:

not really so much related to international buyers testing, more to do with oversupply due to some beetle in russia or something along with the trains from germany

 

Forest owners may be in a worse position than beekeepers, once the trees are in they are locked in for 25 to 30 years and a lot can change in that time.

Part of the current situation is caused by the new president of Brazil, who is a South American version of Donald Trump. He has decided there is no point in having the Amazon rain forest just sitting around, and is drafting laws to abolish protection and open it up for logging, which will flood the world with timber. Of the Indians who live there, he says well they shouldn't be there anyway they should move to cities, get civilised, and get jobs.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/indigenous-communities-in-brazil-protest-threats-to-land-and-services/a-48506378-0

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5 minutes ago, Alastair said:

Forest owners may be in a worse position than beekeepers, once the trees are in they are locked in for 25 to 30 years and a lot can change in that time.

Part of the current situation is caused by the new president of Brazil, who is a South American version of Donald Trump. He has decided there is no point in having the Amazon rain forest just sitting around, and is drafting laws to abolish protection and open it up for logging, which will flood the world with timber. Of the Indians who live there, he says well they shouldn't be there anyway they should move to cities, get civilised, and get jobs.

also an interesting forestry read:

https://www.woodbusiness.ca/highlights-of-the-global-softwood-log-lumber-conference/

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3 hours ago, Philbee said:

Lol

define "new Beekeeper"

Ive found that while in the company of older folk they will always refer to me as a young fella 

I can see a time when as a 70YO the 90YOs will still be calling me the young fella 

I never called you a young fella!

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47 minutes ago, tommy dave said:

This is actually about leverage in the same way that Iran and North Korea use or are attempting to use nuclear proliferation as leverage.

These guys are all extortionist and will likely all suffer the same fate  

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19 minutes ago, Philbee said:

This is actually about leverage in the same way that Iran and North Korea use or are attempting to use nuclear proliferation as leverage.

These guys are all extortionist and will likely all suffer the same fate  

You mean like the way USA can use financial leverage because the world was dumb and trusting enough to keep all their currency reserves in  $US

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Posted (edited)

i7t

19 minutes ago, kaihoka said:

You mean like the way USA can use financial leverage because the world was dumb and trusting enough to keep all their currency reserves in  $US

What currency would you prefer?  

 

But back toward topic,

Imagine being an Investor or Researcher faced with the possibility that any successful work on the unique  benefits of New Zealand Honey  would lead to a another melt down.

Rather discouraging Id imagine.


 

Edited by Philbee

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Posted (edited)

If proper research, combined with honesty, had been applied from day one, this whole scenario would not have happened.

 

A lot of the money coming into the industry was based on fraudulent claims about just what was in that jar of "manuka" honey that someone in England or China was paying huge bucks for. 

 

Fraudulent money attracts new players (largely innocent). Govt steps in to counter fraud, flow of fraudulent (and some non fraudulent) money is stopped. New players and some old players, caught high and dry.

 

A few years ago for curiosity, I purchased some manuka honey in the local supermarket. At that time i like many beekeepers was unaware of the scale of the fraud. However i tasted the honey i had bought, just a hint of a manuka taste, but mostly tasted like clover, with maybe a bit of rewarewa. Hmm...

 

Edited by Alastair
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4 minutes ago, Alastair said:

If proper research, combined with honesty, had been applied from day one, this whole scenario would not have happened.

 

A lot of the money coming into the industry was based on fraudulent claims about just what was in that jar of "manuka" honey that someone in England or China was paying huge bucks for. 

 

Fraudulent money attracts new players (largely innocent). Govt steps in to counter fraud, flow of fraudulent (and some non fraudulent) money is stopped. New players and some old players, caught high and dry.

 

And lets do it all again in five years

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Posted (edited)

I don't think so. A honey that should be investigated would be kanuka. If that happens and it's an if, people might have learned something from history and do things a little different. 

 

See a lot of the players in the manuka boom are less than 10 or 15 year newcomers who know nothing else than the boom, no other experience, they thought the boom was the norm, and they played that game. If a new honey is developed, those people will be older and wiser. They will have the previous experience in their memory and will act accordingly.

 

Pretty likely MPI would be on the case a lot sooner also, before too much damage is done. 

Edited by Alastair
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After following the manuka honey saga for the last few yrs I decided that every way it unravelled was an inevitable consequence of human nature .

Without fear of God and evil spirts and divine retribution I can not see how it would ever be any different no matter how forewarned by experience people were .

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