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Rob's BP

Rodney Dickens opinion piece

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Greetings all, 

 

The economist and analyst Rodney Dickens has published an erroneous opinion piece yesterday that draws some real scare mongering extrapolations and statements. 

I won't list them or link the piece because we don't want them to get around. If they do get picked up by the media and get further amplified, it would be catastrophic to those involved in any way with the Manuka industry. 

Per his request, I've emailed him directly about this requesting the piece to be removed and rewritten with insiders' help. 

Feel free to search it out and also email him directly. I'd include his email address here but the mods will probably remove it.

This is a potentially damaging opinion piece that should be removed and rewritten with accuracy.

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He's generally not worth reading - even the headline has a typo in it.  Someone like Tony Alexander from the BNZ for me.

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Pasture honey prices down from $12 to 3:50 kg. 

Intence competion for even marginal Manuka sites with offers up to 50% of crop. Multiple smaller operators trying to sell up. New operators desperately asking older beekeepers for advice on diversification after rubbishing fore said older beekeepers 

Sure looks like a boom and bust cycle to me

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I really don’t think pieces like this are any help to the industry. He even admits he doesn’t know anything about the honey industry. Looks like he’s a self confessed expert on many topics he has no practical experience in.  

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3 minutes ago, nikki watts said:

I really don’t think pieces like this are any help to the industry. He even admits he doesn’t know anything about the honey industry. Looks like he’s a self confessed expert on many topics he has no practical experience in.  

I read the article and did not know what to think.

Where do you think he is really wrong ?

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Rodney Dickens appears to know a little about everything, but not a lot about ......  Bees. Which he admits.  An outside observers view. Of course we all knew/know that the manuka boom is just part of a cycle. It's the history of New Zealand, as Mr Dickens so rightly points out. What goes up has a tendency to  come down.

And of course with the new standards  competition for primo manuka sites will become fierce .... if it has'nt already. The price of the real Manuka (Puriti) should go through the roof.  

The strong and the cunning will no doubt survive as they muscle out the smaller operators. The smaller operators may well run out of enthusiasm for the amount of work involved to produce a low value crop and will drift away to find other opportunities. Quite what that does to the value of the Bee Hive population is anyone's guess.

But in the end the market will stabilize and we'll all live happily everafter.

 

The short term secret is to not dump our honey lake onto the market  in one large dollop.  Honey is a hard won valuable product  ...... and many Beekeepers  will need to find  an outside cashflow to survive the short term pain. 

 

Edited by jamesc
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1 hour ago, kaihoka said:

I read the article and did not know what to think.

Where do you think he is really wrong 

Truth is he may not be too far off.  but it really gets my back up when these ‘experts’ tell us our industry is stuffed and what we should be doing about it. 

This guy makes money writing articles on subjects he has little or no practical knowledge about. 

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This dude is off the mark.  It would take alot of real manuka to make up to the volume sold of fake manuka.  All that showed that the demand was there. They will be pain. Just in non manuka honeys

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Shows the results one can draw from incorrect data. It's that Airborne graph with estimated production of almost 30,000 tonnes that has played into his hobby horse topic of over supply leading to market crash.

Secondly, saying that Manuka prices could drop by a minimum of 50%. For those who have experienced a huge price drop of non-Manuka honeys, how would you like another price drop of at least 50% on the Manuka honey too! If that happened we'd never see the current prices ever again. Rather than some doing very well, and many doing well, NZ beekeeping would become little more than a subsistence industry. No, we do not want that phrase of his to gain circulation in media and on social media.

 

There are other points that are incorrect, but those are the two biggies IMO.

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28 minutes ago, Rob's BP said:

Shows the results one can draw from incorrect data. It's that Airborne graph with estimated production of almost 30,000 tonnes that has played into his hobby horse topic of over supply leading to market crash.

Secondly, saying that Manuka prices could drop by a minimum of 50%. For those who have experienced a huge price drop of non-Manuka honeys, how would you like another price drop of at least 50% on the Manuka honey too! If that happened we'd never see the current prices ever again. Rather than some doing very well, and many doing well, NZ beekeeping would become little more than a subsistence industry. No, we do not want that phrase of his to gain circulation in media and on social media.

 

There are other points that are incorrect, but those are the two biggies IMO.

If the Manuka price dropped by 50% ... that would be a real knee jerker.   With the laws of supply and demand in the present climate ..... Manuka should go up this year. I have a feeling that climate change is gonna wreak havoc with the South Island crop this year. Just looking at our own secret spot, the flower is fragile , the bud insignificant, and the weather crap.

It's hard to look into the crystal ball. September was looking real dry and we sold a whole heap of heifers as feed was tight ..... and now we are knee deep in grass with clover sprouting where it's never been seen before. All we need is SUN .

 

Edited by jamesc
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Potentially damaging?  It's an opinion from an economist, a class whose prognostications are on a par with those of  weather forecasters. Get over it.  Having a manuka honey producer insist on rewriting it for general consumption is laughable. John Berry's  analysis is probably the best. It's become a crowded field with a fair number of rip sh.. and bust cowboys that brings its own problems,  such as AFB control issues and territorial disputes. I'm betting there's a fair few beekeepers hoping Dickens may be right . . .

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58 minutes ago, Louis said:

Potentially damaging?  It's an opinion from an economist, a class whose prognostications are on a par with those of  weather forecasters. Get over it.  Having a manuka honey producer insist on rewriting it for general consumption is laughable. John Berry's  analysis is probably the best. It's become a crowded field with a fair number of rip sh.. and bust cowboys that brings its own problems,  such as AFB control issues and territorial disputes. I'm betting there's a fair few beekeepers hoping Dickens may be right . . .

o we've seen the rip and sh ..... when's the next phase ?

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1 hour ago, jamesc said:

o we've seen the rip and sh ..... when's the next phase ?

 

What is the next phase ?

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9 minutes ago, frazzledfozzle said:

 

What is the next phase ?

..is to welcome @Louis to the forum of course !!

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