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Honey Price Collapse

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And here was me thinking that rather than a mistake, pinning a tail and calling it a fox was next level cunning compared to doing the same to a common old weasel .

Edited by frazzledfozzle
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On 8/12/2018 at 5:51 AM, jamesc said:

And finally the label.... i don’t know why it took so long to put together....

Now,  where’s my marketinig Boot

 

E77766F1-B9C3-4219-B790-8A4E0A155572.jpeg

 

I like the name - Honey hunters

 

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A mates son was in America recently and had a 20 minute time slot to meet with the owner of Wall Mart to get their honey (exporter) on to Walmarts shelves. 

The owner said "we will buy your product if it fits in between this range of pricing; we will pay a little more if you can prove traceability and there is a story behind it" 

Mates son commented that the price range was half of NZ Beekeepers price expectations.

 

The fact is the world produces honey far cheaper than we do. 

Actually having been away to Turkey and Romania in July I was reminded how expensive NZ is. Half of this is from us ripping each other off and hence we have to put our prices and charges up.................. except when you are a primary producer. 

So with honey prices dropping are associated prices going to fall also? Will the equipment providers drop their prices and will extractors drop theirs too. I doubt it as their cost of living in NZ is still high. 

 

Finding myself building up hive numbers at a time where we are on a price drop could be a bit disheartening if I didn't have a vision to create a secondary product from the primary one. And I am not going to share it until I am actually producing the secondary product and have the brand sorted. 

But if you can think outside the square you'll be ok. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Jay said:

Finding myself building up hive numbers at a time where we are on a price drop could be a bit disheartening if I didn't have a vision to create a secondary product from the primary one. And I am not going to share it until I am actually producing the secondary product and have the brand sorted. 

 

 Why not hedge your bets and produce for your new market from someone else's honey ? Save yourself a power of work...

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4 hours ago, flash4cash said:

Can we see the front? 

Probably got a pole dancer as the main eye catcher pic. Fits in well with the honey hunter bramd name theme. 

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7 hours ago, Jay said:

 

I like the name - Honey hunters

 

I am interested in seeing the front

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This discussion started with me giving some data that gives many people on here a good idea of the scale of the problem facing us. 

You said that information was full of holes and supplied a statement from the MPI website to support your argument.

However AsureQuality are the source of honey crop information information in New Zealand, not MPI

 

Using their data:   This graph

 

image.png.c02cc665e20f5762402aff6e1592cacd.png

 

Times this graph

 

image.png.a1ac1358f698598f49d0a6aa53a192ab.png

 

 gives you a very good idea of what the coming crop is likely to be.  Quoting a bland statement from MPI's website ( out of date and does not look at the hive number trends) to downplay the crop potential is a poor and highly misleading argument.

 

You also offer no information to support your contention that supermarket sales are not a meaningful amount of sales in the New Zealand domestic market.

On 8/12/2018 at 6:47 PM, Adam Boot said:

but you were swayed by opinion as you did not account for anything outside of 'Supermarkets'

 

Perhaps you overlooked that I had quoted consumer surveys responding to the amount of honey they purchased and where they purchased it. To recap and elaborate....

Supermarket sales are 2,150 tonnes and that represents (lowest survey) 70% of consumer purchases, making 3,071 tonnes for total consumer purchases.

Adding another 2,000 tonnes to our domestic consumption for other ("Adam") outlets is an optimistic amount.   Domestic sales..... 5,000 tonnes, tops.

 

And here's where context is important.... even if we double "Adam" sales  to 4,000 tonnes, it does little to affect our current position....

A 27,000 tonne crop with 12,000 tonnes of domestic and export markets (or 14,000 if you prefer) on top of a very large surplus carryover. 

World markets for bulk honey ranging  from US$2,000 to US$3,000 per tonne (NZ$2.90 - NZ$4.35/kg) landed in the buyer's market.

 

Unsubstantiated quotes such as your poorly chosen MPI website quote are self refuting arguments and are not useful to people on this forum that need good information to make some very hard decisions.  Some of us here have been through this before in 1987 when the World honey market last collapsed.  Many went broke.  Hive values collapsed as did the NZ domestic price.  We are in for a very rough ride.  Fortunately most good beekeepers have been extremely profitable, are cashed up with little or no debt, and will survive. 

 

But they need good information.

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4 hours ago, Adam Boot said:

I am interested in seeing the front

AS you will appreciate Adam .... this is a highly structured release so just a little info at a time to pique your appetite !

 

Pole dancers ..... hmm  ......  honey promoting lead in the pencil ......   

 

How's Puriti going ? 

Edited by jamesc
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30 minutes ago, Emissary said:
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This discussion started with me giving some data that gives many people on here a good idea of the scale of the problem facing us. 

You said that information was full of holes and supplied a statement from the MPI website to support your argument.

However AsureQuality are the source of honey crop information information in New Zealand, not MPI

 

Using their data:   This graph

 

image.png.c02cc665e20f5762402aff6e1592cacd.png

 

Times this graph

 

image.png.a1ac1358f698598f49d0a6aa53a192ab.png

 

 gives you a very good idea of what the coming crop is likely to be.  Quoting a bland statement from MPI's website ( out of date and does not look at the hive number trends) to downplay the crop potential is a poor and highly misleading argument.

 

You also offer no information to support your contention that supermarket sales are not a meaningful amount of sales in the New Zealand domestic market.

 

Perhaps you overlooked that I had quoted consumer surveys responding to the amount of honey they purchased and where they purchased it. To recap and elaborate....

Supermarket sales are 2,150 tonnes and that represents (lowest survey) 70% of consumer purchases, making 3,071 tonnes for total consumer purchases.

Adding another 2,000 tonnes to our domestic consumption for other ("Adam") outlets is an optimistic amount.   Domestic sales..... 5,000 tonnes, tops.

 

And here's where context is important.... even if we double "Adam" sales  to 4,000 tonnes, it does little to affect our current position....

A 27,000 tonne crop with 12,000 tonnes of domestic and export markets (or 14,000 if you prefer) on top of a very large surplus carryover. 

World markets for bulk honey ranging  from US$2,000 to US$3,000 per tonne (NZ$2.90 - NZ$4.35/kg) landed in the buyer's market.

 

Unsubstantiated quotes such as your poorly chosen MPI website quote are self refuting arguments and are not useful to people on this forum that need good information to make some very hard decisions.  Some of us here have been through this before in 1987 when the World honey market last collapsed.  Many went broke.  Hive values collapsed as did the NZ domestic price.  We are in for a very rough ride.  Fortunately most good beekeepers have been extremely profitable, are cashed up with little or no debt, and will survive. 

 

But they need good information.

 

Not the only thing that collapsed in 87.  Donna sent me down the road for hitting on her twin Sister.  My on again off again Rachel ran off with some German bloke.  And Kim just got bored - there was no "going around with" her any more.  A bad news year all round, millions wiped off my net worth (on paper of course) although KZ7 just about made up for all that.  Clearly @emissary and I have been in the "honey" market for quite some time, although he has obviously had a bit more success than me, especially in 87.  I think if I was  looking to argue with @emissary about honey or the honey market retreat would probably be the best strategy, otherwise I might get the Boot.

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1987 was definitely a bad year

Lost money in share market as well.
Many youngsters have no idea how bad it was for us then and IMO it made the 2008/9 Sub prime mess look like a hiccup.
Living in Auckland at time I could jog down the  Queen Street side walk (which I often did) and not bump into anyone on a Friday night.

There were few jobs.
It was a real shock to go the Sydney and see the wealth in the streets, but  here it was very sad
Heaps of people had borrowed money to buy shares and overnight those borrowed funds were gone with nothing to show for it.

Many lost their Homes.

The engineering industry was full of workshops full of guys standing round with nothing to do.
I went and lived in Raetihi and worked at the pulp mill as a Fitter.
Crawled out from under that rock in 92

92 till now have been great years but from now on .... ?
 

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24 minutes ago, CraBee said:

 

Not the only thing that collapsed in 87.  Donna sent me down the road for hitting on her twin Sister.  My on again off again Rachel ran off with some German bloke.  And Kim just got bored - there was no "going around with" her any more.  A bad news year all round, millions wiped off my net worth (on paper of course) although KZ7 just about made up for all that.  Clearly @emissary and I have been in the "honey" market for quite some time, although he has obviously had a bit more success than me, especially in 87.  I think if I was  looking to argue with @emissary about honey or the honey market retreat would probably be the best strategy, otherwise I might get the Boot.

So hows life now ?

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1 hour ago, Philbee said:

Many youngsters have no idea how bad it was for us then and IMO it made the 2008/9 Sub prime mess look like a hiccup.

A lot of people have never borrowed money at 25 % and lived with 15 % inflation .

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As I am sure most of you know already, the corporate life is not one that feeds the soul. 

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18 minutes ago, DeeGeeBee said:

the corporate life is not one that feeds the soul. 

No, that's what motorbikes are for !!

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28 minutes ago, Alastair said:

 

Agree with that one. I love 4WD'ing, and I love the beautiful places I go. I also take a lunch with me and where possible stop to have it in some nice spot that restores the soul.

 

Just what an urban dweller like me needs. ?

A lot of my friends took outdoor jobs , like beekeeping , gold minning , possum hunting , goat culling etc, so they could spend time in beautiful places .

And forestry , life in the forest service was very different than life in the forestry industry is now .

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I hate 4 wheel driving it gives me the willies.

If I had my time again I would love to have been a commercial whitebaiter.

 

More on topic. 

The reality is that if you don’t have mono Manuka sites you are in serious trouble.

How long beekeepers can hold on and hope for an improvement in prices is probably going to depend entirely on their debt level and how many staff they employ.

 

Edited by frazzledfozzle
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1 hour ago, frazzledfozzle said:

The reality is that if you don’t have mono Manuka sites you are in serious trouble.

Frazzel, they are almost certainly in the line of fire also.
Events are unfolding hourly.
A Chinese court has just banned all Apple I phones from sale in China

We are now looking at a situation where the possible outcomes are either Bad or Badder.

There is a very small chance that New Zealand will slip under the radar but you wouldn't count on it.

We will probably be viewed in the same context as our Allies and this alone has the potential  cause problems for New Zealand.
Does this mean we should consider undermining our Allies? 

No.
 

Edited by Philbee

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A trade war is always a threat. I see the opposite as USA retreats from the world. China is smart enough to engage it.  Look at the silk road intivite.  This is China moment to shine.

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1 hour ago, frazzledfozzle said:

This makes interesting reading.

page 22 for honey.

 

According to MPI there is an increase in honey sent offshore and in total income.

it seems to paint a very different story around honey prices and demand.

 

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/32260/send

Great stuff @frazzledfozzle .   It is interesting that they are now collecting export data on which honey type since june 2018.  The other interesting thing is USA is a far bigger buyer than China

Edited by flash4cash

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17 minutes ago, flash4cash said:

USA is a far bigger buyer than China

 

There’s a huge amount of discounting of Manuka honey going on in the US right now as the big boys scrap to get market share.

The guys that have been in the US before their arrival are feeling the pinch.

 

It would be interesting to know what is happening to the honey exported as non Manuka .

I wonder if it’s being packaged in the country that’s imported it and sold as Manuka under local honey regulations .

Big profit in that !

 

 

Edited by frazzledfozzle

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47 minutes ago, flash4cash said:

A trade war is always a threat. I see the opposite as USA retreats from the world. China is smart enough to engage it.  Look at the silk road intivite.  This is China moment to shine.

Lol

Flash have you never heard the phrase,"real power cannot be given, it must be taken".

The disturbance in the force is being caused by this attempt to take and the fight to resist.

Have you never knocked a table over in a barroom brawl
The quick patrons see the situation coming and move their drinks, the less aware see their drinks go flying.

 

Then of course it often escalates and spills beyond the building
 

Edited by Philbee
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