Jump to content
Adam Boot

Honey Price Collapse

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, john berry said:

Raw is another term like pure and unadulterated that I'm not very keen on. I've had people ask me of my comb honey is raw.Duh . Generally the definition for raw honey is honey that it has been extracted settled and packed without any heat. Certainly the gentle warming involved in getting granulated honey out of drums would negate the use of the term.
Using the term raw implies that everyone else's honey is cooked .

 

raw honey is meant to be honey that has no processing, ie straight out of the hive and into a jar. no filtering/cleaning/heating.

however its so misused to the point if it just being BS marketing.

 

the other one is "cold pressed" or variations of. ie no heat used.

i'm told of a certain commercial beek that extracts honey cold (no heat exchanger etc) and spent quite a bit of extra $$$ in spin floats to be able to do it (cold honey doesn't separate well in spin floats, hence the need for more of them). but they store honey in drums which requires heating to be able to pack it. makes it all a bit pointless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, yesbut said:

If you're planting for bees flaxes would have to be a starter.

only if you did not want to eat the honey , so i have heard.

does anyone know what it tastes like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, kaihoka said:

only if you did not want to eat the honey , so i have heard.

does anyone know what it tastes like.

Not great from what i hear.  This is where a united voice for beekeepers would be helpfully when they make people plant their waterways and drains there recommend flax.  Problem is it could taint all the other honey and make it less valuable to a beekeeper.  They are planting it of course to support the bees. Kinda right. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Philbee said:

If market and business forces work through this it will be the big guys that fall over.
At lower prices offshore these guys with their lower efficiencies will be in big trouble. 

 

Although the larger operations typically have their own brand and overseas sales channels, where the real profit is made.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CraBee said:

 

Although the larger operations typically have their own brand and overseas sales channels, where the real profit is made.

 

I don’t think it’s all roses for the big guys right now.

Rumour going around is that there’s a huge amount of discounting going on in the US market between the big boys all trying to get market share by undercutting each other. 

Then look at Comvita who have had to make big changes in their beekeeping operation because it’s losing money, they talk of only chasing high quality Manuka and changing from permanent beekeepers to seasonal staff. 

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Good Info 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CraBee said:

 

Although the larger operations typically have their own brand and overseas sales channels, where the real profit is made.

Yes, however the current risk is global slowdown
I suspect that the commentating marketeers arnt really factoring this in and the potential is for something unprecedented.

Flash mentioned Franz Ferdinand as an example of a trigger and that all thats required right now.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If nuclear war does break out at least all nz beekeepers are good to go with all our surplus honey. 

 

Hard to know of what i will die of 1st. Type 2 diabetes from all the fructose or live damage from all the mead. 

Edited by flash4cash
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Live on pollen.

 

I've sometimes thought that if I were stranded on an island with 2 or 3 beehives, pollen traps, and all needed equipment, long as there was a source of fresh water there would be a basic survival level there. Add in seafood and whatever else could be found, the pollen would give all the goodies you need, you could stay fit.

  • Like 1
  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, flash4cash said:

If nuclear war does break out at least all nz beekeepers are good to go with all our surplus honey. 

 

Hard to know of what i will die of 1st. Type 2 diabetes from all the fructose or live damage from all the mead. 

Nuclear war is very unlikely as the current global issues revolve around future prosperity, not annihilation of adversaries.  

  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Out if interest how much is pollen worth and is it easy to sell? The future is proteins not sugars

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Alastair said:

Live on pollen.

 

I've sometimes thought that if I were stranded on an island with 2 or 3 beehives, pollen traps, and all needed equipment, long as there was a source of fresh water there would be a basic survival level there. Add in seafood and whatever else could be found, the pollen would give all the goodies you need, you could stay fit.

You can have all the pollen you want
Ill be in the water collecting real protein 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, flash4cash said:

The future is proteins not sugars

Interesting opinion
Im of  the opposite view.

Protein is about growth and sugar is fuel
Whats the future about?, growth or sustenance.
 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Philbee said:

Interesting opinion
Im of  the opposite view.

Protein is about growth and sugar is fuel
Whats the future about?, growth or sustenance.
 
 

Sugar is cheap to produce, it is the protiens that are expensive.  When we buy in animal feed it is protien that cost us. 

 

How much pollen does a hive collect in a year? 

 

Can we turn bee pollen into the next health craze? Flag the honey

Edited by flash4cash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of people are into there protien shakes. Just infuss bee pollen into it. Does not even have to be much just a characterisation product. 

 

Does not even have to make a difference.  Like iso whey...what does that do..nothing..did not stop isogenix build a multi billion dollar company out of it. 

Edited by flash4cash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Collecting it is tough on the bees. Normally you run a trap on a hive for a few weeks, then remove it.

 

I do not know the current price of pollen. It used to be a nice little side earner for smaller beekeepers who needed to maximise every dollar from each hive, and it was advertised on TV constantly. Then we got flooded with cheap Chinese pollen and killed the NZ producers. Then the main pollen sellers were busted for selling Chinese pollen but saying it was NZ pollen. They were fined heavily and closed shop. And that, was the end of pollen as a popular multi million dollar fad in NZ.

 

The lesson here, is about greed. Had those businessmen been honest, they would still be running their business. But no. The nice profits they were making were not enough, they had to resort to fraud and make even bigger profits. Now they are gone. Sound familiar?

Edited by Alastair
  • Like 3
  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pure flax honey isn't my favourite but some people really like it and as a mixture it's quite nice. I've seen the boom and bust cycle in honey a few times but with pollen it seems to happen once or twice a decade. Prices get high so more people trap and then suddenly there is a surplus. I have seen so many beekeepers yards full of unused and unwonted pollen traps that cost a fortune to make. I think there can be good money in it but the market is so small it is incredibly easy to oversupply. Having said all that I haven't seen a lot of pollen round lately so if you could get some of those old traps cheap you might do all right.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Philbee said:

Global sales from natural honey exports by country totaled US$2.4 billion in 2017.

Overall, the value of natural honey exports appreciated by an average 15.2% for all exporting countries since 2013 when natural honey shipments were valued at $2.1 billion. Year over year, global exports of natural honey increased in value by 7.7% from 2016 to 2017.

Among continents, European countries accounted for the highest dollar value worth of natural honey exports during 2017 with shipments amounting to $937.9 million or 39% of international honey sales. That percentage compares with 24.3% from Asian exporters, 15.9% from Latin America (excluding Mexico) plus the Caribbean, and 12.4% from Oceania (mostly New Zealand trailed by Australia). Smaller percentages came from North America (8%) then Africa (0.4%).

The 4-digit Harmonized Tariff System code prefix for natural honey is 0409.

 

Natural Honey Exports by Country

 

Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of natural honey during 2017.

  1. China: US$270.7 million (11.3% of total natural honey exports)
  2. New Zealand: $268.1 million (11.2%)
  3. Argentina: $183.2 million (7.6%)
  4. Germany: $145.6 million (6.1%)
  5. Ukraine: $133.9 million (5.6%)
  6. Brazil: $121.3 million (5%)
  7. Spain: $110.3 million (4.6%)
  8. Mexico: $104.7 million (4.4%)
  9. India: $104 million (4.3%)
  10. Hungary: $97.3 million (4%)
  11. Belgium: $77.3 million (3.2%)
  12. Vietnam: $70.6 million (2.9%)
  13. Canada: $60.6 million (2.5%)
  14. Romania: $52.1 million (2.2%)
  15. Bulgaria: $48.1 million (2%)

By value, the listed 15 countries shipped over three-quarters (76.9%) of all natural honey exports during 2017.

Among the top exporters, the fastest-growing natural honey exporters since 2013 were: Ukraine (up 152.9%), Brazil (up 124.1%), New Zealand (up 91.3%) and India (up 37.4%).

Five countries posted declines in their exported natural honey sales: Vietnam (down -21.6%), Argentina (down -13.9%), Mexico (down -6.8%), Romania (down -4.5%) and Canada (down 2.6%).

I have just used this data recently for a report. It becomes even more interesting when you overlap this data with the import list data and then the consumption data. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Adam Boot said:

I have just used this data recently for a report. It becomes even more interesting when you overlap this data with the import list data and then the consumption data. 

Would you summarize your observations

Obviously NZ would be a standout in any comparisons given that we export so much yet import none

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/12/2018 at 5:16 PM, Philbee said:

I see extreme stress on the horizon for Manuka.
While Manuka may command a premium going forward I see that premium shrinking.
I also see intense competition for Manuka sites, possibly from small but significant co-ops.
One only needs to look at the reported cost per hive data to see that there are some lumbering monsters out there and one also just needs to read the likes of Adams post with regard to the significant steps that Honey goes through to market once it leaves the field.
There are people out there who can and probably will turn that notion upside down and inside out.
My advice, Beeks need seek independent advice.
Having said I have no doubt we are in for a rough ride, possibly worse than anyone has considered possible.

Philbee - I am interested to know how you think the premium will shrink? Do you think the price will decrease? The cost will increase or other honey types will catch up?

I agree there will be stress in the market. There always is in growing markets with growing demand. I would welcome seeing 'There are people out there who can and probably will turn that notion upside down and inside out' and how it might be done? If anything the complexities and regulation is getting more complex. Cost of entry to the market is getting higher. Every man and his dog thinks he can put honey in a jar put a label on it and sell it. They believe that that is the process of creating a brand. Then a year latter wonder why the don't sell much honey. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Adam Boot said:

Philbee - I am interested to know how you think the premium will shrink? Do you think the price will decrease? The cost will increase or other honey types will catch up?

I agree there will be stress in the market. There always is in growing markets with growing demand. I would welcome seeing 'There are people out there who can and probably will turn that notion upside down and inside out' and how it might be done? If anything the complexities and regulation is getting more complex. Cost of entry to the market is getting higher. Every man and his dog thinks he can put honey in a jar put a label on it and sell it. They believe that that is the process of creating a brand. Then a year latter wonder why the don't sell much honey. 

Premiums will shrink as demand falls, and demand is likely to fall
My view is that there is a high likelihood that some discerning Honey consumers will switch from High value Manuka to a lower cost alternatives as financial realities take affect.
Hopefully there will be a well placed alternative NZ honeys  to pick these customers up.
It was a mistake in my view to put all the eggs in this one basket when we could have been in a much stronger position had we allowed the Manuka brand power to be spread across a wider variety of our Honeys by way of blends.
Sure there are sound rationales why this is incorrect but I doubt that those rationales took into consideration the likely market conditions of two years ahead from now.
This is my opinion based on where I see the world economies going.

 

Edited by Philbee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/12/2018 at 5:16 PM, Emissary said:

In a decreasing value market, decreasing volume creates a decreasing total value.   All are going down.  Unless you provide some data and its source, you are simply provding annecdotes supporting your preferred belief system.  This does not help us.

 

In the past supermarket sales have been surveyed (3 that I know of) to be 77-88% of consumers' purchases of honey.

The data is what is available.  I used simple arithmetic to process it.  The data and I have no "opinion".  It is what it is.  You on the other hand provide no source data, and no calculations... yet say this information is "full of holes". 

If honey in jars is not the largest volume, then something else is larger.  Care to share and substantiate that claim with some data?

The 2019 crop is predicted by multiplying the hive numbers by the average production per hive.  MPI don't "suggest" anything.  The data is derived from the apiary register, and are understated ( hands up those that are declaring more hives than they have) and AsureQuality's annual crop assessments.  The trouble with now stating that these "aren't right" is that in the past the numbers would have put us into negative stock.... an impossibility.

Quoting "some packers" as though this will make the surplus go away overlooks the whole picture.  The exports this year are down 20% on last year.  The domestic packed honey sales in supermarkets are down on last year.  

The biggest issue is our hive numbers and the crop they now produce. 

 

image.png.acc1149a70ccfced59d74240cc24ada0.png

 

We have produced over 30 kgs/hive in 12 out of the last 16 years with a high of 40.7 kg/hive in 2003 (and 40.8 in 1994)

Conditions are now looking excellent across the country.

 

Ok, hold on back up the truck. This is an open forum. You title 'Honey Marketer' suggests we probably compete. I do not know who you are. On the other hand I am foolish enough to use my own name. I am not going to explain how I compile data, the sources I draw upon and how I make assumptions. When is said 'full of wholes' I refer to the fact that you are basing an entire nations consumption, usage of honey and the value of that honey based upon the data of supermarkets. There are at least 7 other retail channels domestically for jars of honey. Therefore the data cannot be representative of the market.

 

There are multiple honey market sectors you have completely ignored. You have assumed that honey in a jar represents the bulk of honey used. 

 

I agree you used simple arithmetic, but you were swayed by opinion as you did not account for anything outside of 'Supermarkets' because it fits your argument and view. Which is fine by the way because we can agree to differ, both on overall position, methods of solution, market potential and market value growth. 

 

Your statement 'In a decreasing value market, decreasing volume creates a decreasing total value' how do you know any of that is true? Do you refer to 'from the hive' or 'to the retailer' or to the consumer? The market is multi faceted with many layers. What parts are you referring to. 

 

There are so many untapped ways to create and build value, the industry just needs to think a little differently. 

 

You are correct the MPI do not suggest. They state the below taken directly from the MPI website: 

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/exporting/food/honey-and-bee-products/

Honey and bee products

New Zealand produces between 15,000 and 20,000 tonnes of honey each year, depending on climatic conditions. Export earnings have exceeded $300 million and continue to grow. MPI helps honey exporters sell their products to almost 40 countries.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would siggest to A Boot that filling a jar with honey and sticking a label on it is a greay way to get the balll rolling for honey sales.

put a good product on the shelf is the first step to securing repeat orders, snd hey presto, you have a brand and band of customers who seek out your product.

it’s not rocket science .... it just takes quite a bit of r&d budget.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, jamesc said:

I would siggest to A Boot that filling a jar with honey and sticking a label on it is a greay way to get the balll rolling for honey sales.

put a good product on the shelf is the first step to securing repeat orders, snd hey presto, you have a brand and band of customers who seek out your product.

it’s not rocket science .... it just takes quite a bit of r&d budget.

Interesting concept. So you have a jar full of wonderfull honey with a label on it. Great, that has just cost you money for zero return. What next?

 

How do you get it on to shelves? (Remember in the case of Manuka honey there are at least 200 different jars with labels on them) How do you get a retailer to put this on the shelf and pay you for the privilege? How many shelves? It needs to be many hundreds probably thousands for this to work, but how many for this jar with a label to be cost effective? Now before you get a repeat order you have to sell some. Out of all those jars with labels on, why is the consumer going to choose your jar? (if your answer is price you have failed the test) 

I agree putting a label on a jar is easy. Creating a brand is a world apart from this. 

The next stage is your budget. R&D and Marketing above the line and below the line. Do you know how much you need? More importantly do you know how to make those budget dollars work? 

 

'it’s not rocket science .... it just takes quite a bit of r&d budget' - now that is one of the greatest lines ever. It should be carved in to every tomb stone of every failed product with a label that believed they were a brand. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/12/2018 at 4:50 PM, Bighands said:

I have been reading all the comments great ideas are coming out.BRANDS How long do you really think it takes to bring a brand to success   years.I should know I have sat at markets and sold nothing .After 20 odd yrs

'How long do you really think it takes to bring a brand to success' - It depends on how you approach situation and the solutions you adopt. You will struggle to build a brand quickly selling in Markets. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Adam Boot how would you define a brand in 1 sentence? 

 

My attempt:

 

"The implied trust and emotional connection to a product or services"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×