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JasonK

Buying used gear

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periodically I receive an email from Trade me with suggestions for what I may be interested in (presumably based on my prevous search and purchase history), that arrived this morning and lo and behold the auction under discussion here was number 1 on the list. I don't know if the seller pays extra for that feature but imagine that it will open said auction to a whole lot of new potential buyers.

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Had a quick look through the bee section on Trade Me, and found 2 bee businesses for sale. Not long ago it was very occasionally there would even be one for sale.

 

You've done well locking in those sales Frazz.

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@Daley

Touché. Good advice :)

Edited by JasonK

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@frazzledfozzle awesome. I wish you the best with your sales, I’m sure things will be fine for NZ beekeepers on a small to medium scale, not sure how much change will actually occur in the industry next couple seasons, but I think it might actually turn out alright for us smaller beekeepers anyway. Pretty fun selling high quality stock to satisfied customers no doubt. You deserve to make a return on raising those bees.

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2 hours ago, Alastair said:

Had a quick look through the bee section on Trade Me, and found 2 bee businesses for sale. Not long ago it was very occasionally there would even be one for sale.

boys where talking it about it this week.

theres a couple of decent sized commercials up for sale ($1-2m range) and looks like a handful of semi's either selling complete or off loading whats left.

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14 minutes ago, tristan said:

boys where talking it about it this week.

theres a couple of decent sized commercials up for sale ($1-2m range) and looks like a handful of semi's either selling complete or off loading whats left.

i just found another commercial up for sale. 

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Getting out before the dam bursts. :$

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38 minutes ago, Alastair said:

Getting out before the dam bursts. :$

not sure. i know one of them but no idea why they are up for sale.

but yeah the general trend seams to be more of them up for sale.

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I have only even brought new gear the risk of getting afb is not worth it for me.

 

It is interesting how many companies are buying to tack on to there existing portfolios.  Makes sense if the bees make a loss in a particular year just write it off against other profitable income. Given the scope of wild swings in production/prices this makes sense. 

 

There is no doubt there will high numbers of bees for sale and the price will reflect that.  Will there be any demand?  Time will tell. Comparing to cows the price can vary between $1200 to $3500 based on how the economics of dairy is going.  Bee will be similar.  I would not be surprised to see nucs go for $150 come spring. Even then they may not sell.  

 

It all comes down to people abiity to sell honey at reasonable prices.  And by the sounds of things that is not happening. 

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Based on mean reversion theory, I think there will be a small correction in bee prices this spring

 

Pricing components for my forecasts of 2018 Spring nucs:
Demand: Expecting the same. Looks like its inelastic in the $150-$300 price point. 
Supply: Expecting more. Based on the good bee margins over the last few years I think more bee suppliers have entered the market. (Ignoring changes to the winter loss rate and honey price)
 

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7 hours ago, werdna said:

Based on mean reversion theory, I think there will be a small correction in bee prices this spring

 

how is that theory going on dairy land and auckland rental properties these days?

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Pick the right tool for the circumstance. Those markets have different circumstances i.e lots of regulation versions and a much longer market cycle. Momentum or trend following would probably be better tools

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9 minutes ago, werdna said:

Pick the right tool for the circumstance. Those markets have different circumstances i.e lots of regulation versions and a much longer market cycle. Momentum or trend following would probably be better tools

Hmmmmmmnn

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@werdna how do you work this all out?  How long have you been modeling? 

Do you use this skill in your day job? Just interested if you would please expand. Cheers

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When I think mean revision theory I think long term Capital management and how close 2 noble prize winner came to collapsing the global financial system.  

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On 9/04/2018 at 7:45 PM, werdna said:

Pick the right tool for the circumstance. Those markets have different circumstances i.e lots of regulation versions and a much longer market cycle. Momentum or trend following would probably be better tools

Werdna

Ive tried to contact you re your purchase 18/6/18 but it appears you cannot receive messages.
 

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